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AUSTIN TXPUBLIC DRIVERLESS — Day 207

DRIVERLESS4 CITIES LIVE

TESLA FLEET35+ VEHICLES TRACKED

TSLA$...

ELONloading...

@ROBOTAXIloading...

AUSTIN TXPUBLIC DRIVERLESS — Day 207

DRIVERLESS4 CITIES LIVE

TESLA FLEET35+ VEHICLES TRACKED

Digital Energy TerminalTesla ecosystem

ENERGY → COMPUTE → INTELLIGENCE → MONEY. SHADOWMODE TRACKS TESLA'S PHYSICAL LAYER — THE POWER-AND-COMPUTE BOUND PRODUCTS THAT ABSORB GRID LOAD AND SHIP AUTONOMY.

Robotaxi

live

21 CITIES

4 DRIVERLESS · 35+ FLEET TRACKED

COMPUTE ON WHEELS SRC

Energy

live

8.8 GWH Q1'26MISS

MISS VS CONSENSUS · MEGAPACK DEAL LEDGER

GRID RELEASE VALVE SRC

Semi

ramping

965/1,067 HVIP

CONTRACT LEDGER · CONVERSION LIVE · STALE RESERVATIONS FLAGGED

DIESEL → GRID LOAD SRC

Optimus

planned

PROD JUL–AUG '26NO VOL TARGET

FREMONT LINE CONVERSION · NO 2026 VOLUME TARGET

LABOR → ELECTRIFIED SRC

OPTIMUS PRODUCTION

Q1 2026 CALL · SOURCED

MODEL S/X LINE ENDS

EARLY MAY 2026SRC

FREMONT OPTIMUS PRODUCTION· INITIAL OUTPUT "QUITE SLOW" — MUSK, Q1 CALL

LATE JUL / AUG 2026SRC

GIGA TEXAS OPTIMUS FACTORY· SECOND LINE · GEN 4 VOLUME TARGET

SUMMER 2027SRC

USEFUL WORK IN FACTORIES· MUSK ADMISSION — TRACK CONVERSION HONESTLY

ZERO (JAN 2026)SRC

ENERGY PANEL SEMI LEDGER

DEPLOYMENT PULSEROBOTAXI OPS

Cities

Being tracked

States

With robotaxi activity

35+

Fleet

Vehicles deployed

12/15

Permits

Received across markets

Public programs

Test programs launched

Testing

Driverless in progress

Driverless

Lead market

Miami, FL · Public driverless operation

Cybercab — We, Robot unveil (Oct 2024)

US Robotaxi Map

Shadowmode deployment pulse · self-hosted SVG

Shadowmode

21 cities · 4 driverless/testing

Active markets

21/21

Pulse status

LIVE

Austin88%

Dallas79%

San Francisco71%

Houston71%

Oakland63%

San Jose63%

Miami55%

Mesa, Tempe50%

Las Vegas50%

Phoenix42%

Driverless Testing Tracking 25%+

4 cities have achieved driverless operation. 14 more projected within 9 months.

Velocity

Slowing

Active (60d)

3 cities

Near-term

14 in 6-9mo

Highlights

4 signals

4 driverless markets active1 new test launches this quarter1 cities with rising momentum5 AV-friendly states in pipeline

States

With Robotaxi activity

Cities

Being tracked

Active Cities

With any progress

Public Programs

Test programs launched

35+

Est. Vehicles

Deployed total

Driverless

No safety monitor

4 cities have achieved driverless operation. 14 more projected within 9 months.

Velocity

Slowing

Active (60d)

3 cities

Near-term

14 in 6-9mo

Highlights

4 signals

4 driverless markets active1 new test launches this quarter1 cities with rising momentum5 AV-friendly states in pipeline

The Ledger

What changed, and what we said would happen

Change Log

Every cell that flips gets an entry — including our own corrections

RSS API

Aug 12, 2026

CORRECTIONTerminalSourced

Safety Signals panel retired and replaced with Fleet Buildout.

The panel reported a crash count and a crashes-per-mile rate. Three problems, found together: the mileage denominator was modeled from assumed constants (fleet size x 100 mi/day x 180 days) rather than measured; the crash count was a hardcoded figure that had not changed since Dec 2025, so the displayed rate improved automatically as the fleet grew even though no new crash data had arrived; and the cited source was a private individual with no discernible connection to autonomous-vehicle reporting, who never produced the figure attributed to him. That attribution has been removed from this changelog as well. Rather than publish a corrected estimate, the panel has been replaced with Fleet Buildout, which counts vehicles deployed, driverless cities and active states directly from the milestone record — no modeling and no third-party attribution. Tesla does not publish robotaxi production figures, so deployment is what can be counted and is labelled as such.

Jul 3, 2026

FLIPMiami, FLSourced

Miami goes live: public robotaxi rides, unsupervised from day one.

Tesla launched public robotaxi service in Miami on Jul 3, 2026: its first market outside Texas and California and first on the East Coast. No driver or in-car safety monitor from day one. Model Y fleet. Roughly 20 sq mi zone including MIA airport (no terminal pickups yet). Milestones flipped: public_test_program_launched, no_safety_monitor, robotaxi_app_access_opens.

Not a Tesla App, Jul 3 2026

Jul 2, 2026

CORRECTIONTerminalSourced

Safety panel corrected: "0 incidents · Excellent" removed.

The panel previously hardcoded zero incidents and an "Excellent" verdict. It was replaced with reported crash figures attributed to a third-party compilation. The attribution was later found to be incorrect and the whole panel was retired on Aug 12, 2026 — see that entry.

Jul 2, 2026

CORRECTIONTerminalSourced

Austin driverless start date corrected: Dec 14, 2024 → Dec 14, 2025 (internal) / Jan 2026 (public).

Two panels showed "Dec 14, 2024" for the start of Austin driverless operations — a year off from the sourced record. Internal/employee driverless testing began Dec 14, 2025; public driverless rides began Jan 2026.

Jul 2, 2026

TERMINALTerminalSourced

Epistemic tiering shipped: every number now wears SOURCED, MODELED, or CLAIMED.

Modeled figures (TAM, projections, readiness scores, mile estimates) no longer carry verdict badges. Verdicts are earned only by sourced data.

This terminal

Predictions Ledger

Modeled

Calls on the record, scored in public. Never edited after posting.

Brier Score

—

first resolutions due Dec 31, 2026

Tesla operates public driverless robotaxi service (no safety monitor) in at least 5 US metros by Dec 31, 2026.

55%

OPEN

Judged by: Counted on this terminal's milestone matrix: "No Safety Monitor" completed in ≥5 metros, each backed by a sourced entry in the change log. Austin, Dallas, Houston count as 3 at posting.

posted Jul 2, 2026resolves by Dec 31, 2026

California grants Tesla driverless deployment permission for public rides in the Bay Area by Dec 31, 2026.

30%

OPEN

Judged by: CA DMV driverless deployment permit + CPUC authorization both granted, per the agencies' public records. Bay Area service is supervised-only at posting.

posted Jul 2, 2026resolves by Dec 31, 2026

NHTSA Engineering Analysis EA26002 results in a mandatory recall affecting the robotaxi fleet by Jun 30, 2027.

35%

OPEN

Judged by: A recall citing EA26002 that applies to vehicles operating in Tesla's driverless service, per NHTSA's public database.

posted Jul 2, 2026resolves by Jun 30, 2027

Tesla publishes per-mile safety data for its robotaxi fleet (crashes or interventions per mile, city-level) by Jun 30, 2027.

25%

OPEN

Judged by: An official Tesla publication (report, filing, or investor material) with per-mile robotaxi safety figures. Aggregate FSD-wide claims do not count.

posted Jul 2, 2026resolves by Jun 30, 2027

Brier score = mean squared error of stated probability vs outcome. 0 is perfect; 0.25 is what a coin-flipper scores. Revisions get a new entry — the original stands. JSON API

Milestone Alerts

When a tracked cell flips — a permit granted, a monitor removed, a correction logged — you get the entry. Timestamped, sourced, tiered. Nothing else.

Legend:

Completed

In Progress

Not Started

Unknown

N/A

Every number wears one:Sourcedprimary sourceModeledour estimateClaimedsaid, not verified

Loading news...

Updated: —

Legend:

Completed

In Progress

Not Started

Unknown

N/A

Every number wears one:Sourcedprimary sourceModeledour estimateClaimedsaid, not verified

Deployment Progress by CitySourced

Scroll horizontally to see all milestones →

Location	Insurance Tesla Insurance Available Tesla Insurance is available in this state	Fleet Ads Fleet Support Job Ads Tesla is advertising for fleet support positions	Approval Final Regulatory Approval Full regulatory approval received for autonomous operation	Progress Rollout Progress Overall completion percentage across all milestone stages for this city
Texas(TX)4 cities Pro-AV state. In 2026, Tesla needs final TxDMV authorization per Senate Bill 2807. Texas (TX) Pro-AV state. In 2026, Tesla needs final TxDMV authorization per Senate Bill 2807.
AustinDRIVERLESS			3	88%
DallasDRIVERLESS			3	79%
HoustonDRIVERLESS			3	71%
San Antonio				25%
California(CA)5 cities To remove safety monitors, Tesla needs Driverless Tester Permit and CPUC enrollment. California (CA) To remove safety monitors, Tesla needs Driverless Tester Permit and CPUC enrollment.
San Francisco		2		71%
Oakland		2		63%
San Jose		2		63%
Los Angeles				25%
San Diego				25%
Florida(FL)4 cities No AV permit required. Tesla Insurance not yet available in Florida. Florida (FL) No AV permit required. Tesla Insurance not yet available in Florida.
MiamiDRIVERLESS	1			55%
Orlando	1			25%
Tampa	1			25%
Jacksonville	1			15%
Arizona(AZ)2 cities
Mesa, Tempe				50%
Phoenix				42%
Nevada(NV)1 city Pro-AV state with streamlined permit process. Nevada (NV) Pro-AV state with streamlined permit process.
Las Vegas				50%
New York(NY)2 cities Strict AV regulations. Tesla Insurance not yet available in New York. New York (NY) Strict AV regulations. Tesla Insurance not yet available in New York.
Brooklyn	1			13%
Queens	1			13%
Massachusetts(MA)1 city Requires local approval and state coordination for AV testing. Massachusetts (MA) Requires local approval and state coordination for AV testing.
Boston	1			21%
Colorado(CO)1 city No AV permit required in Colorado. Colorado (CO) No AV permit required in Colorado.
Denver				20%
Illinois(IL)1 city No state-level AV permit required, but local regulations may apply. Illinois (IL) No state-level AV permit required, but local regulations may apply.
Chicago				20%

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Investor Intelligence

Leading Indicators & Risk Analysis

Readiness Index

Modeled

Weighted deployment score (0-100)

National Avg

6-Month Trend

6mo agoNow

City Readiness Rankings

Austin, TX

Dallas, TX

Houston, TX

San Francisco, CA

Oakland, CA

San Jose, CA

State Averages

Texas

Arizona

California

Nevada

Florida

Colorado

Score weights: Regulatory (30%) + Insurance (20%) + App Access (15%) + Fleet (15%) + Driverless (20%)

Time-to-Driverless Projection

Modeled

Estimated timeline based on Austin baseline

Live

3-5 months

6-9 months

9-12 months

>12 months

Driverless Active

Miami, FLLIVE

Austin, TXLIVE

Dallas, TXLIVE

Houston, TXLIVE

3-5 Months

Mesa, Tempe, AZlowConfidence

Friendly regulatory environmentRegulatory approval secured

Phoenix, AZlowConfidence

Friendly regulatory environmentRegulatory approval secured

Los Angeles, CAlowConfidence

Mixed regulatory environment

Oakland, CAmediumConfidence

Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active

San Diego, CAlowConfidence

Mixed regulatory environment

San Francisco, CAmediumConfidence

Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active

San Jose, CAmediumConfidence

Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active

Denver, COlowConfidence