Freight is ~10% of US diesel demand. Every Semi delivered is grid load that used to be a diesel pump. The order book is the signal — if the contracts convert, the energy shift is real.
Compiled 2026-06-20 · jeff · power-is-the-bottleneck thesis
Conversion is happening — not vaporware
Volume production line live Apr 29 2026. Real deliveries: PepsiCo, DHL, Saia, ArcBest, Nevoya, RoadOne, Martin Brower. WattEV 370-unit order (~$100M). Old "still just reservations" framing is dead.
CA HVIP: 965 of 1,067 vouchers = Tesla Semi
90%+ of CA clean-truck voucher applications (Jan 2025–Feb 2026) — government-sourced, least-spinnable demand signal.
Stale 2017 reservations are themselves a signal
UPS (125), Sysco (50), AB (40), FedEx (20), J.B. Hunt — no 2024+ delivery update. Reservation ≠ delivery.
Govt demand signal (HVIP)
965 / 1,067
90%+ of CA clean-truck vouchers · govt program
~108
On the road (est.)
7 customers · pilot + delivered only
~370
On firm order
1 customer · deposit/order, not delivered
~180
Active reserved
2 customers · book only until delivered
~235
Stale reservations
5 customers · no 2024+ update
Tesla does not report Semi deliveries separately (buried in "Other Models") — this ledger is the only delivery proxy.
Reservation ≠ delivery. STALE rows (2017–2022, no 2024+ update) are themselves a signal.
Production & Charging Infra
Pricing (Feb 2026)
1,072 hp tri-motor · Standard + Long Range
$260K (325-mi) / $290K (500-mi)SRC
Federal CFI Grant (IL corridor)
Jan 2025 · Tesla ~$40M share of consortium award
$100M E-FREIGHTSRC
Megacharger — Ontario CA live
Mar 8 2026 · 4265 E Guasti Rd
1 customer-facing stationSRC
Megacharger — network mapped
Feb 2026 · 15 states on Tesla Find Us map
64 new + 2 operationalSRC
Pilot Flying J partnership
Jan 2026 · I-5 / I-10 corridors · 4–8 stalls/site
Summer 2026 first sitesSRC
Semi Contract Ledger
15 sourced rows · 8 converting · 5 stale| Customer | Units | Status | First Announced | Latest Update | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | 86 operating | Operating (pilot) | 2017 | Sept 2024: Modesto 15 / Sacramento 21 / Fresno 50 | SRC |
| DHL Supply Chain | 1 delivered, more for 2026 | Operating (pilot) | 2017 | First DHL delivery Dec 2025 | SRC |
| Nevoya | 5 delivered | Operating (pilot) | 2025 | July 2025: first payment-collected commercial deliveries | SRC |
| Saia LTL | 2 delivered | Operating (pilot) | Jan 2025 | 1.73 kWh/mi commercial pilot | SRC |
| ArcBest / ABF | 2 purchased | Operating (pilot) | 2025 | June 2026: bought after pilot (1.55 kWh/mi) | SRC |
| RoadOne | up to 10 | Operating (pilot) | Jan 2026 | Expanding 1→10 on performance | SRC |
| Martin Brower | 2 | Operating (pilot) | 2024 | Stockton DC pilot | SRC |
| WattEV | 370 ordered (~$100M) | Deposit / Order | May 2026 | First 50 deliver 2026; Port of Oakland drayage | SRC |
| Walmart Canada | 130 reserved | Reserved | 2017 | May 2024: tripled 15→130 | SRC |
| Loblaw (Canada) | ~50 on order | Reserved | 2017 | Doubled fleet; +25 on order | SRC |
| UPS | 125 reserved | Reserved — STALE | 2017 | No delivery / no 2024+ update | SRC |
| Sysco | 50 deposit | Reserved — STALE | 2017 | 2022: still in queue | SRC |
| Anheuser-Busch | 40 ordered | Reserved — STALE | 2017 | No delivery confirmed | SRC |
| FedEx | 20 reserved | Reserved — STALE | 2022 | FedEx Freight LTL; no delivery | SRC |
| J.B. Hunt | multiple | Reserved — STALE | 2017 | No delivery / no update | SRC |