SHADOWMODE
Live
•
9
States
With Robotaxi activity
21
Cities
Being tracked
21
Active Cities
With any progress
4
Public Programs
Test programs launched
135+
Est. Vehicles
Deployed total
0
Driverless
No safety monitor

21 cities tracked across 9 states. 0 showing accelerating progress.

Velocity

Stable

Active (60d)

0 cities

Near-term

18 in 6-9mo

Highlights

2 signals

3 new test launches this quarter5 AV-friendly states in pipeline
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Legend:
Completed
In Progress
Not Started
Unknown
N/A

Deployment Progress by City

LocationInsuranceAppliedPermitOperator AdsFleet AdsApprovalRoute ValApp AccessTest LaunchExpandedVehiclesDriverlessProgress
California
San Francisco
2
71%
Oakland
2
63%
San Jose
2
63%
Los Angeles
25%
San Diego
25%
Texas
Austin
3
83%
Dallas
3
46%
Houston
3
38%
San Antonio
25%
Arizona
Mesa, Tempe
50%
Phoenix
42%
Florida
Miami
1
25%
Orlando
1
25%
Tampa
1
25%
Jacksonville
1
15%
Nevada
Las Vegas
50%
New York
Brooklyn
1
13%
Queens
1
13%
Massachusetts
Boston
1
21%
Colorado
Denver
20%
Illinois
Chicago
20%
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Investor Intelligence

Leading Indicators & Risk Analysis

Readiness Index

Weighted deployment score (0-100)

National Avg

36

6-Month Trend

6mo agoNow

City Readiness Rankings

1
Austin, TX
77
2
San Francisco, CA
63
3
Oakland, CA
60
4
San Jose, CA
60
5
Mesa, Tempe, AZ
53
6
Phoenix, AZ
50

State Averages

Arizona

52

Texas

51

California

49

Nevada

43

Colorado

23

Illinois

23

Score weights: Regulatory (30%) + Insurance (20%) + App Access (15%) + Fleet (15%) + Driverless (20%)

Narrative Pressure Index

Market patience & execution momentum

Pressure

Moderate

Proof Velocity

3

milestones/mo

Half-Life

Fading

51d since catalyst

Reg Exposure

Moderate

33% restrictive

Narrative Drift

Story-ledMixedExecution-led

Execution-Led

What Changes the Stock

  • ✓3+ cities with public test programs
  • ○Second market achieves driverless status

Last Catalyst Impact

Austin Driverless AnnouncedDec 14, 2024
TSLA Response+8% next session

Execution milestones move the stock. Promises don't.

Market Read

  • •Steady deployment pace maintains current market expectations.
  • •Next major catalyst likely to come from geographic expansion or driverless milestone.
  • •Regulatory approvals remain key unlock for acceleration.

Derived from deployment data. Not investment advice.

Time-to-Driverless Projection

Estimated timeline based on Austin baseline

0

Live

16

3-5 months

2

6-9 months

0

9-12 months

3

>12 months

3-5 Months

Phoenix, AZlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environmentRegulatory approval secured
Mesa, Tempe, AZlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environmentRegulatory approval secured
Los Angeles, CAlowConfidence
Mixed regulatory environment
San Diego, CAlowConfidence
Mixed regulatory environment
San Francisco, CAmediumConfidence
Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active
Oakland, CAmediumConfidence
Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active
San Jose, CAmediumConfidence
Mixed regulatory environmentPublic test program active
Denver, COlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Miami, FLlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Orlando, FLlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Tampa, FLlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Las Vegas, NVlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Austin, TXmediumConfidence
Friendly regulatory environmentPublic test program active
Dallas, TXlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
Houston, TXlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment
San Antonio, TXlowConfidence
Friendly regulatory environment

6-9 Months

Chicago, ILlowConfidence
Boston, MAlowConfidence

Projections based on Austin timeline (~6 months to driverless), adjusted for regulatory environment, current progress, and milestone completion. Low confidence = early stage or restrictive regulation.

Safety Signals

Preempting the safety question

Excellent

2.4M

Est. Miles (Driverless)

0

Incidents (90d)

N/A

Days Since Last

No major safety incidents reported in Tesla robotaxi testing. The driverless operation in Austin began Dec 14, 2024 with third-party route and safety validation completed prior to launch.

Data Confidence

Medium

Mile estimates based on fleet size × avg daily miles. Incident tracking from public reports only.

Why we show this: Safety skepticism is the #1 criticism. Transparently tracking what we know (and don't know) disarms critics and builds credibility without overclaiming.

Public Trust Signal

External validation & legitimacy

Trust Score

65

Moderate
Regulatory Permits
3states approved
Insurance Coverage
$5Mliability per incident
Third-Party Validation
1Safety audit completed
Public Operations
6+months supervised rides

NHTSA FSD investigation active • CA driverless permit pending

Tesla has secured key permits and completed third-party validation in Austin. Permission to scale is progressing, though California driverless approval remains pending.

Data Confidence

Medium

Measures "permission to scale" via external validation (permits, insurance, audits) — not Tesla claims. Updated: 2025-12-16

Economic Impact

Revenue potential & TAM analysis

Annualized TAM

$17.6M

195

Total Fleet

2.2K

Daily Rides

$90K

Rev/Vehicle

4

Active Cities

Current SAM vs TAM100.0% penetration

Current (Active Markets)

$17.6M

Total Addressable

$17.6M

Revenue by City

1Austin, TX
medium$12.2M
Fleet: 135Rides/day: 1553Rev/vehicle: $90K
2San Francisco, CA
low$1.8M
Fleet: 20Rides/day: 230Rev/vehicle: $90K
3Oakland, CA
low$1.8M
Fleet: 20Rides/day: 230Rev/vehicle: $90K
4San Jose, CA
low$1.8M
Fleet: 20Rides/day: 230Rev/vehicle: $90K

Estimates based on: Fleet size from public reports/filings, avg rides/vehicle/day from industry benchmarks (~8-15 rides for active fleets), avg fare $15-25 per ride. TAM includes cities with any robotaxi activity.

Regulatory Friction

State-level AV policy environment

5

AV-Friendly

2

Mixed

2

Restrictive

AV-Friendly- Streamlined permits, supportive legislation
AZ2 cities
~85d avg permit
CO1 cities
FL4 cities
NV1 cities
~8d avg permit
TX4 cities
~60d avg permit
Mixed- Some regulatory complexity
CA5 cities
~180d avg permit
IL1 cities
Restrictive- Significant regulatory barriers
MA1 cities
~240d avg permit
NY2 cities
~365d avg permit

Key insight: Tesla isn't necessarily slow - regulatory environments vary significantly. TX, AZ, and NV have ~8-85 day permit timelines vs CA at ~180 days and NY at 365+.

Rollout Velocity

Stable

Last Mo

0

→

This Mo

0

60-Day Activity0 cities
Quarter Launches3 vs 0
Driverless Events0

Consolidation before expansion, or ceiling?

Irreversibility

Locked

Who has made a decision they can't walk back?

●
Regulatory

TX S.B. 2807 framework active

●
Insurance

Multi-state underwriting live

◐
Corporate

Pilot investment made

◐
Operational

Safety driver dependency

Reversal CostMEDIUM
Last CommitmentDec 14, 2024

Tesla • Austin driverless ops

Still in pilot phase. Commitments remain reversible.