{"name":"SHADOWMODE predictions ledger","description":"Calls on the record with stated probabilities and resolution dates, scored in public (Brier). Entries are never edited after posting.","score":{"resolvedCount":0,"openCount":4,"brier":null,"nextResolutionDue":"2026-12-31"},"predictions":[{"id":"pred-2026-07-5-metros","statement":"Tesla operates public driverless robotaxi service (no safety monitor) in at least 5 US metros by Dec 31, 2026.","probability":0.55,"madeOn":"2026-07-02","resolveBy":"2026-12-31","method":"Counted on this terminal's milestone matrix: \"No Safety Monitor\" completed in ≥5 metros, each backed by a sourced entry in the change log. Austin, Dallas, Houston count as 3 at posting.","status":"open"},{"id":"pred-2026-07-bay-area-permit","statement":"California grants Tesla driverless deployment permission for public rides in the Bay Area by Dec 31, 2026.","probability":0.3,"madeOn":"2026-07-02","resolveBy":"2026-12-31","method":"CA DMV driverless deployment permit + CPUC authorization both granted, per the agencies' public records. Bay Area service is supervised-only at posting.","status":"open"},{"id":"pred-2026-07-nhtsa-ea26002","statement":"NHTSA Engineering Analysis EA26002 results in a mandatory recall affecting the robotaxi fleet by Jun 30, 2027.","probability":0.35,"madeOn":"2026-07-02","resolveBy":"2027-06-30","method":"A recall citing EA26002 that applies to vehicles operating in Tesla's driverless service, per NHTSA's public database.","status":"open"},{"id":"pred-2026-07-safety-data","statement":"Tesla publishes per-mile safety data for its robotaxi fleet (crashes or interventions per mile, city-level) by Jun 30, 2027.","probability":0.25,"madeOn":"2026-07-02","resolveBy":"2027-06-30","method":"An official Tesla publication (report, filing, or investor material) with per-mile robotaxi safety figures. Aggregate FSD-wide claims do not count.","status":"open"}]}